OK, so I’ve seen all but one of the 2018 Best Picture nominees and what do I think? I haven’t seen “Call Me by Your Name” yet because I don’t particularly like the subject matter. I think it has a small chance to be a dark-horse winner but I haven’t heard that much buzz on its chances of actually winning Oscars. I’d say it has a one in ten chance. As far as “Phantom Thread” goes, Daniel Day-Lewis is a great actor but the film ix boring and not particularly relevant to our current cultural and political climate. I don’t think it has any chance.
“Get Out” is a terrific movie that made a lot of money but does a low-budget horror satire have any chance at Best Picture? I would say no; a better chance is in the original screenplay category. “Dunkirk” is real good for a big-budget studio war movie, successfully employing unusual techniques to emphasize the experience of war rather than the historical details of it. It will probably win a lot of technical Oscars but not so much in the big categories.
“The Post” is Spielberg’s best film since “Munich” but it only got 2 nominations for Best Picture and for Meryl Streep. The newspaper-themed film “Spotlight” won two years ago and I think that’s why “The Post,” a very good and timely movie, will be shut out.to win.
“Lady Bird” is an excellent coming-of-age comedy but I don’t think it’s going to win because not enough people saw it. Also, comedies almost never win Oscars. It scored a lot of nominations, though, so it has a 15 percent chance.
“The Darkest Hour” is the third-most likely movie to win. Audiences love the Gary Oldman performance and the way the movie dramatizes history. The problem is that the screenplay and directing are not considered to be as good as Oldman’s performance. Nevertheless, I think it has a 20 percent chance of winning.
“The Shape of Water” has really resonated with critics with its mixture of fantasy, horror, romance, and social commentary about the 1950’s. The acting and the monster are great, but the movie may be somewhat overrated. I think it has Best Director for Guillermo del Toro all sewn up, with only Greta Gerwig of “Lady Bird” providing real competition. However, I don’t think it will win because it’s a kinky monster movie, and not something that voters traditionally go for. I’d give it a 25 percent chance of winning, or second best.
That leaves “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” as the most likely winner, and a highly deserving one too. It has the best acting and writing of any film this year and it’s highly socially relevant. It is controversial for how it deals with race relations, but it’s a great, nearly flawless and very entertaining film. With a 30 percent chance of winning, it is the Oscar Frontrunner! Yay!
So, again, here are the films that have a chance of winning, in order: 5. “Cal Me by Your Name”-10 percent 4. “Lady Bird”-15 percent. 3.”The Darkest Hour” 20 % 2. “The Shape of Water”-25 % and 1. “Three Billboards”-30 % Happy Oscar handicapping!